Trade:Written question - HL15048

Asked on: 03 April 2019
Department for International Trade
Trade
Lords
To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the analysis by the World Trade Organisation that global trade growth may decline in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
A
Answered by: Baroness Fairhead
Answered on: 17 April 2019

The latest WTO forecasts revised 2019 global trade growth from 3.7% to 2.6%, rising to 3.0% in 2020. Forecasts assume a smooth Brexit with a transition period until 2020. Weak air freight shipment figures, declining global export orders, increased economic policy uncertainty and a fall in the global GDP outlook are cited as reasons for downward revisions to forecasts.

The WTO notes the uncertainty surrounding recent estimates and that ‘the effects of Brexit will depend on the nature of any agreement that might be reached between the UK and the EU, with impacts mostly confined to these economies.

HMG published analysis of UK impacts of various EU exit scenarios, including no-deal, in November 2018.

The Government's priority is to continue to press the case for the orderly Brexit that delivers on the result of the referendum. The Government will continue to prepare for all eventualities with partner countries, including a ‘no deal’ scenario. The UK will have an independent trade policy once we exit from the EU and is preparing for an ambitious programme of trade negotiations and enhanced market access.

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