As estimated by the 2015/16 Teacher Supply Model, English primary schools will require 29,700 qualified teachers to enter the active stock in the 2015/16 academic year. The model also estimates that English secondary schools will require 22,500 qualified teachers to enter the active stock in the 2015/16 academic year.
This need for teachers will be met through a combination of new trainees, those returning to the profession, and those entering the state-funded sector in England for the first time.
The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to calculate the optimum number of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places required to match the future supply of teachers to the estimated demand for qualified teachers within the state-funded sector in England. The National College for Teaching and Leadership (NCTL) uses this information to inform their allocation of ITT places to teacher training providers.
The estimates for the future demand for teachers use the projected number of pupils in schools, assumed Pupil Teacher Ratios (PTRs), and our best estimates for the number of teachers required to implement the Department’s policy initiatives. The model also takes into account other flows within the existing stock of teachers such as those leaving the profession or retiring as well as those expected to return to teaching in the state-funded sector.
Whilst the Department estimates future teacher demand, decision-making taken at school level determines the actual number of teachers required. As with any forecast, uncertainty increases the further into the future the estimate is made for.
The Department has published estimates of teacher demand in part 1 of the TSM, published online at: