The following table provides estimates for the number of teachers needed in each academic year from 2016/17 to 2020/21. This need for teachers will be met through a combination of new trainees, those returning to the profession and those entering the state-funded sector in England for the first time.
Source: Teacher Supply Model
The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to calculate the optimum number of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places required to match the future supply of teachers to the estimated demand for qualified teachers within the state-funded sector in England. The National College of Teaching and Leadership (NCTL) use this information to inform their allocation of ITT places to teacher training providers.
The estimates for the future demand for teachers use the projected number of pupils in schools, assumed Pupil Teacher Ratios (PTRs) and our best estimates for the number of teachers required to implement the Department’s policy initiatives. The model also takes into account other flows within the existing stock of teachers such as those leaving the profession or retiring as well as those expected to return to teaching in the state-funded sector.
The Department forecasts the need for teacher trainees one year in advance in line with the annual ITT allocation decisions. However, the TSM also forecasts teacher demand over ten years to provide an overview of long term trends.
Whilst the Department estimates future teacher demand, decision-making taken at school level determines the actual number of teachers required. As with any forecast, the uncertainty increases the further we look into the future.
The Department has published estimates of teacher demand in part 1 of the TSM, which is published online at: www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model