Committee publishes Bank of England’s updated economic analysis of Brexit

04 September 2019

In June 2018, the Treasury Committee asked HM Treasury, the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority to produce analysis of the impact of Brexit in differing scenarios, and in good time before Parliament came to vote on the eventual Brexit deal.

The Committee received and published the analysis in November 2018. In December, the Committee used the analysis to produce a Report on the Withdrawal Agreement. It stated that the Government had failed to provide analysis of several important scenarios, including short-term analysis of the fiscal, regional, sectoral and employment impacts of various Brexit scenarios. It concluded, therefore, that the Government’s economic analysis was not fully sufficient to inform the vote in Parliament.

On 17 July, the Committee asked HM Treasury whether officials have been undertaking these missing analyses and updating the existing analysis. The Committee also asked the Bank of England whether its macroeconomic analysis of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration remains fully relevant, and where relevant, provide the Committee with an updated version of its analysis.

Today, the Committee has published the Bank of England’s response, where the Bank has updated its analysis of its ‘worst case’ No Deal No Transition scenario. It awaits a response from HM Treasury.

The Treasury Committee will ask the Bank of England about the analysis in the evidence session which has just started, and can be viewed live here.

Further information

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