Teachers:Written question - 34458

Q
(Bristol West)
Asked on: 18 April 2016
Department for Education
Teachers
Commons
To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what estimate she has made of the number of teachers (a) actively seeking or in teaching employment by 2020 and (b) needed in such employment by that date; and if she will make a statement.
A
Answered by: Nick Gibb
Answered on: 22 April 2016

The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to estimate the national requirements for the primary phase and each secondary subject for the number of postgraduate Initial Teacher Training places to meet future demand. The model also estimates the number of qualified teachers that will be in active service and the number that will enter into active service (either as Newly Qualified Teachers or those that qualified more than one year beforehand) for each year. The table below shows the number of qualified teachers that will be in active service each year and the number that will enter active service each year as estimated by the 2016/17 TSM:

-

-

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Estimated no. of qualified teachers in active service (headcount)

Primary

238,215

240,267

241,708

243,027

243,447

244,048

Secondary

216,284

217,681

219,268

221,456

223,722

225,540

Total

454,499

457,948

460,976

464,483

467,169

469,588

Estimated no. of qualified teachers entering active service (headcount)

Primary

27,159

26,622

26,117

26,080

25,342

25,464

Secondary

23,385

24,033

24,094

24,526

24,550

24,234

Total

50,544

50,655

50,211

50,606

49,892

49,697

Source: 2016/17 Teacher Supply Model

The 2016/17 TSM, along with a user guide explaining the methodology in detail, is available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model

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