I refer the Hon. Member to my answer of 9 November 2015 to PQ 14872 and 14873, which was as follows:
The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to estimate the demand for the number of qualified teachers within state-funded schools in England each year using a range of assumptions, including projections for the numbers of pupils in schools, the number of teachers expected to leave the sector and the number of returnees.
The estimate of teacher demand is published in part 1 of the TSM here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model
The TSM’s primary purpose is to provide an estimate of the number of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places required in the 2016/17 academic year to yield the required number of Newly Qualified Teachers (NQTs) entering the profession in 2017/18. The TSM is updated annually to reflect the latest available data.
The estimates of the number of teachers needed in the current TSM differ from those provided the Answer of 11 November 2014 to Question 213691 because the inputs, such as population projections, have been updated to use the most recent data.