The Department for Education publishes forecasts for pupil numbers in each local authority annually. The latest available data can be found in the 2014 capacity tables published online at:
Table 4 provides local authority forecasts of pupils of primary school age through to 2018/19. Table 5 provides local authority forecasts of pupil of secondary school age through to 2020/21.
For primary school places, the department has published information on the number of places added by local authorities, the number of places for which there are firm plans for delivery, and the number of places that the department estimates are still needed. This information is published in the local authority basic need scorecards which are published online at:
The way in which the department estimates the shortfall of places is described in the technical annex of the scorecards. The department no longer articulates the shortfall of places in terms of ‘severe’, ‘high’ or ‘moderate’. Instead, it focuses on the estimated number of additional places needed to meet demand. The department’s aim is to ensure that all children have access to a good school place.
The basic need scorecard published in April 2014 focused on the estimated number of additional places needed to meet demand in 2015/16. It is our intention to continue to publish local authority pupil forecasts, school capacity data and shortfall calculations in a similar way.