Science: Teachers:Written question - 213691

Q
Asked by Dan Jarvis
(Barnsley Central)
[N]
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Named Day

'Named day' questions only occur in the House of Commons. The MP tabling the question specifies the date on which they should receive an answer. MPs may not table more than five named day questions on a single day.

Asked on: 06 November 2014
Department for Education
Science: Teachers
Commons
To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what estimate she has made of the number of additional teachers that will be needed in (a) 2015-16, (b) 2016-17, (c) 2017-18, (d) 2018-19, (e) 2019-20 and (f) 2020-21 in (i) mathematics, (ii) physics and (iii) computer science.
A
Answered by: Mr David Laws
Answered on: 11 November 2014

The following table provides estimates for the number of teachers needed in the English state funded-sector in each academic year from 2015/16 to 2020/21 for maths, physics, and computing. This need for teachers will be met through a combination of new trainees, those returning to the profession, and those entering the state-funded sector in England for the first time.

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Maths

3,300

3,400

3,700

3,600

3,600

3,600

Physics

1,000

1,200

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

Computing

900

900

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

Source: Teacher Supply Model

The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to calculate the optimum number of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places required to match the future supply of teachers to the estimated demand for qualified teachers within the state-funded sector in England. The National College for Teaching and Leadership (NCTL) use this information to inform their allocation of ITT places to teacher training providers.

The estimates for the future demand for teachers use the projected number of pupils in schools, assumed Pupil Teacher Ratios (PTRs) and our best estimates for the number of teachers required to implement the Department’s policy initiatives. The model also takes into account other flows within the existing stock of teachers such as those leaving the profession or retiring as well as those expected to return to teaching in the state-funded sector.

The Department forecasts the need for teacher trainees one year in advance in line with the annual ITT allocation decisions. However, the TSM also forecasts teacher demand over ten years to provide an overview of long term trends.

Whilst the Department estimates future teacher demand, decision-making taken at school level determines the actual number of teachers required. As with any forecast, uncertainty increases the further into the future the estimate is made for.

The Department has published estimates of teacher demand in part 1 of the TSM, published online at:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model

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